AGP Executive Report
Last update: 9 hours agoFiscal Pressure: Iraq is facing unprecedented strain as parliament again fails to pass a budget on time, leaving the government to run on emergency spending while the IMF warns the economy is highly exposed to regional shocks. Oil Exports: Iraq’s crude exports to the US fell to zero last week, after fluctuating in May and early June, underscoring how quickly shipping disruptions can hit cash flow. Hormuz Fallout & Recovery: With the Strait of Hormuz reopening treated as a near-term certainty, Iraq’s oil ministry says exports and production should gradually return toward pre-war levels within weeks to two months, as operators restart output. Kurdistan Security: In Erbil, officials say oil companies are preparing to resume production and exports from previously suspended fields, but only with stronger protection and Baghdad meeting financial obligations. Exploration Push: Iraq has started drilling its first northern exploratory well since 1978, aiming to expand reserves and future capacity. Gas Supply Fix: Baghdad is moving to reactivate its stalled gas deal with Turkmenistan to ease summer electricity shortages, using a swap mechanism via Iran’s network. Logistics Workaround: Iraq is also preparing to export crude and naphtha through Syria’s Baniyas port as an emergency route, even if Hormuz traffic normalizes.
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