AGP Executive Report

AI & Digital Health: Iraq’s tech push stayed in focus at ITEX 2026, where startups showcased AI for media verification and tamper-proofing, while the Future Health 2026 agenda highlighted AI moving from diagnosis to continuous risk prediction and personalized care. Telecom & Data Centers: Iraq’s Ministry of Communications signed an MoU with Huawei to build modern enterprise data centers nationwide, aiming to expand sovereign cloud hosting and partner with 240+ Iraqi enterprises. Energy & Trade Corridors: Iraq and Türkiye opened talks in Ankara on a wider energy framework covering oil, gas, petrochemicals and infrastructure, building on crude transport deals that help offset Hormuz disruptions. Oil Market Signals: India’s September crude imports hit a year high, with Iraq emerging as India’s second-largest supplier as Gulf flows rebound. Water Security: Haditha Dam storage in Anbar topped six billion cubic meters as Euphrates levels stayed within safe limits, with releases and diversions supporting drinking water and winter crop planning. Construction & Land Rights: In Nineveh, PMF blocked a protest over building restrictions in the Nineveh Plains after court-backed decisions lifted limits on registered private land. Transport & Logistics: Arab Bridge Maritime in the region reported record profits above $40M through September 30, supporting fleet upgrades and new routes.

Sovereignty Under Strain: Iraq’s foreign minister Fuad Hussein warned that the end of the US mission is opening a dangerous vacuum as Iran presses for influence over Baghdad’s security and decision-making. Aviation & Sanctions: Iran urged Iraq to restore flights after US sanctions hit Iranian airlines; Iraq had suspended Iran routes while seeking exemptions for pilgrims and medical travel. Energy Markets: OPEC+ is likely to keep November oil output steady, but delayed its 2027 capacity review after Iran-war disruptions muddied expansion plans. Oil & Shipping: Gulf crude exports are rebounding toward prewar levels as Saudi and UAE reroute supply around Hormuz, while Iranian exports remain constrained. Local Industry & Tech: Zain Iraq began authorized iPhone 18 Pro sales, signaling tighter regulated consumer tech distribution. Agri Innovation: Kurdistan’s first vermicompost plant is using earthworms to revive saline, degraded soil and support food security. Food & Costs: UN Women warned Middle East escalation could push millions more women and girls into food insecurity, with Iraq among countries facing high employment-related vulnerability.

Defense & Sovereignty: Kurdistan’s leaders say air-defense gaps are widening after the US-led coalition’s pullout, warning of renewed drone and missile threats as Iraq pushes weapons under state control. Turkey-Iraq Security: Türkiye says it will gradually hand over the Bashiqa-Zilkan base to Iraqi authorities, citing progress in Sinjar and promising continued defense cooperation. Oil & Shipping: Hormuz flows are rebounding toward pre-war levels, but refined fuel supply remains constrained; a tanker was also hit in the Strait, underscoring ongoing maritime risk. Aviation Sanctions Relief: The US issued a license allowing Iraqi Airways flights between Iran and Najaf until Oct. 28, easing pressure on Baghdad amid Iran-related restrictions. Construction Materials: Lafarge Iraq appointed Tarek Sharobime as new CEO as demand stays strong in cement, concrete and dry mortar. Industry & Trade: Iraq is in talks with Huawei on smart port technology, while reports also flag Iraq’s growing role as an oil supplier. Humanitarian Impact: UNHCR warns a funding crisis could cut education access for millions of refugee children.

US-Iraq Transition: The last US-led coalition forces have left Iraq, ending Operation Inherent Resolve and shifting security and influence dynamics toward Baghdad, with Washington still expected to keep training and intelligence ties. Regional Diplomacy: As US-Iran talks stall, Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran’s UN delegation to leave New York, while Iran says it received a US response on a seven-day Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal. Security & State Authority: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says Iraq will bring all weapons under state control by June 30, 2027, targeting non-state and non-Iraqi armed groups. Turkey-Iraq Military Handover: Türkiye will withdraw from the Bashiqa-Zilkan base near Mosul and hand it to Iraqi authorities in stages, while pledging continued defense-industry and counterterror cooperation. Energy & Power: Kurdistan electricity supply will drop for about a month due to maintenance at the Khor Mor gas field. Construction & Urban Development: ORA Iraq awarded CRC Dorra the Phase One construction contract for Madinat Al Ward. Aviation & Connectivity: Eurowings expands winter routes with new direct Baghdad service, signaling renewed regional travel demand.

US-Iraq Security Transition: The US completed its full withdrawal from Iraq, ending the anti-ISIS Operation Inherent Resolve and shifting security responsibility to Iraqi forces as coalition troops relocate to Jordan. Iraqi Sovereignty & Command: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said military decision-making is now “entirely national,” while the UK pledged continued security cooperation with Baghdad and Kurdistan, including defense industry and training support. Gulf Energy Pressure: Oil remains tight above $100 as US-Iran tensions and shipping risks keep markets on edge, with OPEC+ expected to hold output targets steady. Iraq Air Connectivity: Iraqi Airways is set to resume direct flights to Iran in October after securing a sanctions exemption, following months of disruption. Militia & Disarmament Risk: Analysts warn the federal government faces major hurdles verifying disarmament as Iranian-backed Iraqi militia defections and continued resistance complicate the post-withdrawal landscape.

Oil & Shipping: Iraq’s SOMO raised October discounts on Basrah crude to $34.50/bbl for Basrah Medium and $37/bbl for Basrah Heavy, aiming to pull buyers despite higher shipping costs and Strait of Hormuz risks. Security & Sovereignty: The U.S. completed its full troop withdrawal from Iraq, ending the 12-year mission against ISIS and shifting security responsibility to Iraqi forces, while Iran framed the pullout as a regional victory. Kurdistan Air Defense: Drones struck Azadi Camp near Koya, renewing pressure on the Kurdistan Region’s air-defense plans as coalition forces depart. Energy Policy Ripple: Iraq’s oil export outlook remains tied to regional transit disruptions, with markets watching OPEC+ output decisions as Iraq is among core members. Industry & Logistics: EGA signed with Gulftainer to boost aluminium exports from the UAE’s east coast, with port capacity expansion that also supports regional shipping links. Tech & AI (Global, Indirect): CoreWeave launched CoreWeave Forge to unify the AI development loop—an example of how production-grade AI workflows are evolving worldwide.

US-Iraq Withdrawal & Sovereignty: The last US-led coalition troops are set to leave Iraq on Sept. 30, a move Baghdad frames as “sovereignty,” but analysts warn it could weaken the state’s leverage over Iran-backed militias as the disarmament deadline looks likely to slip. Housing & Land Administration: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered the Justice Ministry to speed up a database for state and other real estate under the Watan Initiative, with an online registration link planned for next month and infrastructure contracting starting for prepared plot sites. Energy Logistics Under Pressure: Iraq has begun importing gasoline via Syria’s Baniyas port to bypass Hormuz disruption, using land transport onward; separately, Syria reports sabotage hitting gas pipelines, raising uncertainty for regional energy transit. Oil Refining Push: Nineveh’s council backed a 70,000-bpd refinery in Qayyarah for Council of Ministers approval, alongside calls for local industrial participation. Gas Processing Progress: Dhi Qar’s Al-Nasiriyah/Al-Gharraf gas project reached 78% completion, targeting dry gas for power plants and industrial use while cutting flaring. Fuel Prices Watch: Singapore’s Caltex raised petrol prices, mirroring Shell, as Middle East supply worries keep energy costs volatile. Construction Contract: ORA Iraq awarded CRC Dorra the Phase One construction contract for Madinat Al Ward after POWERCHINA completed earthworks and ground preparation.

Iraq–Finance Integration: The Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) has started trading on Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange’s Tabadul platform, letting investors in both markets access listed securities directly and trade/settle in local currencies—an expansion that links regional capital markets and boosts cross-border investment channels. Energy & Infrastructure: Iraq’s oil export picture is improving as Middle East crude flows recover toward about 80% of pre-conflict levels, with analysts pointing to rerouting and bypass routes as Hormuz pressure eases. Aviation & Sanctions Pressure: Iraq is dealing with the fallout of US sanctions on Iran-linked aviation, including talks around resuming flights (such as Tehran–Najaf) and broader disruptions that are reshaping regional travel routes. Security & Regional Spillover: A pro-Iran militia warned it will monitor Iraqi airspace and shoot down “hostile” aircraft after the US-led coalition withdrawal ends Sept. 30, raising new uncertainty for air operations and stability. Industry Watch: Consumer manufacturing continues to expand in the region, with Unilever Egypt adding export-focused capacity—an indirect signal for Iraq’s wider consumer-goods supply chain opportunities.

Iraq–Smart Ports: Iraq’s Ministry of Transport met Huawei and Uruk Engineering Services in China to explore smart port tech and digital logistics, with a planned Huawei assessment visit to Iraq’s maritime transport and ports directorate after a field trip to Tianjin Port. Electrical Manufacturing Push: Iraq’s National Investment Commission discussed with Swiss firm Main Power Engineering a full-cycle electrical equipment complex, including oil-immersed high-voltage transformers, dry-type industrial transformers, semiconductor devices, switching systems, and a high-voltage testing facility. Oil Export Update (Kirkuk): Iraq increased crude volumes for export via the Kirkuk system to about 250,000 bpd (from ~225,000), supported by higher Basra-linked flows and Kurdistan Region supply, with storage at Ceyhan port reported at capacity. Sanctions & Air Links: Iraq said flights from Iran to Najaf could resume within 24 hours after US sanctions disrupted services, while foreign ground-handling firms reportedly paused work over dollar-system risks. Regional Energy Pressure: Middle East crude exports rebounded in September as Saudi shipments rose, but Strait of Hormuz reopening remains uncertain after US rejection of Iran’s proposal—keeping logistics and costs tight for the region.

Energy Security: The IEA says Saudi crude supply fell to a more than three-decade low in August, after attacks tied to Yemen’s Houthis and Iran-backed strikes hit key facilities and shipping near Bab el-Mandeb, Jazan and Yanbu. Oil Trade: Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded in September to about 12.8m bpd as Hormuz flows gradually recovered, though still far below February levels. Iraq Exports & Imports: India’s state refiner bought 2m barrels of Iraqi Basrah Medium and Heavy for October delivery at roughly a $28/bbl discount to Dubai, while Iraq continues rerouting energy via Syria as Hormuz risk persists. Cross-Border Fuel Corridor: Syria has started shipping imported petrol to Iraq through the Banias port under a renewable three-month deal, with initial batches of tanker trucks and plans to scale up. Iraq Market Watch: The ISX traded over $4.58m last week (about 6.6bn dinars), with the ISX60 index edging up. Digital Infrastructure: Iraq officially licensed Starlink satellite internet, with regulators saying network oversight remains sovereign. Industry & Investment: Basra’s oil, gas, energy and petrochemicals expo wrapped up with about 300 companies from 18 countries.

Iraq–Syria Trade Boost: Iraq has started importing petrol through Syria via the Banias oil terminal, using an overland corridor to ease fuel shortages amid Strait of Hormuz disruption; the first batch of about 32,000 tonnes is moving by tanker and truck toward Iraq’s Baiji refinery under a transit deal involving SOMO and Qatar’s UCC. Customs Modernization: Baghdad and Damascus also agreed eight measures to streamline cross-border trade and passenger traffic, including electronic customs-data exchange and dedicated lanes, with a Damascus Chamber estimate of 30–50% trade growth in the first year. Basra Refining Tensions: Workers at the South Refineries Company’s FCC project in Basra escalated protests, demanding Oil Ministry jobs and reinstatement after the project ended, as entrances and roads were blocked and some protesters were injured or arrested. Oil Market Pressure: Vitol bought at least 25 million barrels of discounted Iraqi crude in September, underscoring how shipping and logistics risks are reshaping Iraq’s export flows. Water Security: Iraq’s environment ministry warned it will pursue legal action over pollution threatening the Tigris and Euphrates, calling them “not dumping grounds.” Regional Shipping Politics: A Houthi official said coordination with Iraqi factions continues through “private channels,” while Red Sea tensions keep pressure on regional energy routes.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran’s Araghchi says Washington hasn’t formally replied to a proposed seven-day reopening, after Trump publicly rejected the plan and warned of renewed pressure. Regional Security: The IRGC warned it would target US warships even in the Indian Ocean if attacks resume. Water & Environment: Iraq marked World Rivers Day with fresh warnings that the Tigris and Euphrates are being overwhelmed by untreated sewage, industrial and medical waste, with legal action threatened. Baghdad Property Crackdown: Baghdad’s land fraud probe led to 10+ arrests over forged documents and illegal conversion of agricultural land for sale. Basra-Kuwait Dispute: A Basra movement urged Baghdad to push Khor Abdullah onto a new Iraq-Kuwait committee agenda and form technical and legal panels. Digital Infrastructure: Iraq unveiled a plan for distributed enterprise data centers across Baghdad, Basra, and Mosul to boost hosting and digital transformation. Urban Services Tech: Iraq launched its first smart pneumatic waste collection system with Spanish backing, starting in Karbala and aimed at cleaner, lower-traffic sanitation. Energy & Trade: US crude imports from Iraq resumed at about 51,000 bpd after a prior halt, while Iraq’s inflation rose 3.3% year-on-year in August. Transport Policy: Iraq reached about 100,000 vehicles converted to LPG as Parliament presses for wider access to factory conversion models.

Smart Waste & Environment: Iraq’s first smart waste collection system is being rolled out in Karbala, using an underground network to move waste from homes to transfer stations, with Spanish technical support and a push for cleaner, more efficient cities. Public Works & Investment: Plans are in discussion for an Indian-backed pipe manufacturing complex in Basra to produce oil, gas and water pipelines, with incentives under Iraq’s investment law and support for training and technology transfer. Protests & Jobs: Baghdad braces for five days of demonstrations starting Sunday, with engineers, students, and public-sector applicants demanding jobs, budget inclusion, and faster services. Aviation Sanctions Relief: Iraq is in direct talks with the US to exempt some Iraqi airports from sanctions so flights to Iran can resume on humanitarian grounds (medical, education, religious travel). Energy & Power Supply: A new report says Iraq still buys 41% of its electricity, while hydro generation has nearly halved due to water scarcity and drought. Inflation & Health Costs: Iraq’s CPI rose 0.7% in August; in Kurdistan, drug price cuts saved over $229M and the health ministry is preparing another round. Agriculture Disputes: Kurdish officials say Iraq’s 2025 agricultural land law helps, but implementation gaps and Article 140 uncertainty still stall restitution. Regional Security & Trade Routes: Saudi officials at the UN renewed calls for freedom of navigation through Hormuz and other waterways, warning that shipping restrictions would hit global supply chains.

Aviation & Sanctions: Iraq is in direct talks with the US to get exemptions for some Iraqi airports so flights with Iran can resume on humanitarian grounds (medical, education, religious visits, and civilian needs) after new US sanctions targeted Iranian airlines. Power & Water Stress: Iraq’s grid still relies on purchased electricity for 41% of supply, while hydro generation has plunged 50.8% in 2025 due to drought and low dam levels, alongside maintenance and spare-parts shortages. Coalition Drawdown: Iraq and the US continue restructuring ties as the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center is handed over to Iraqi control, tied to the Sept. 30 end of the anti-ISIS coalition mission and the push for exclusive state weapons control. Oil & Shipping Security: Basra tribesmen helped recover a hijacked crude oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, freeing the crew and capturing seven pirates. Energy Investment: TotalEnergies is discussing a bigger $16bn Iraq bet to expand oil output, building on its existing GGIP footprint. Regional Trade Shock: The Iran-US standoff over reopening the Strait of Hormuz keeps pressuring Iraq’s economy and logistics as oil exports and costs remain under strain.

Iraq’s UN push for investment and state control: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi told the UN General Assembly Iraq wants the state to decide “war and peace” and keep weapons under constitutional institutions, while also expanding oil production and export routes. Energy corridors beyond Hormuz: Al-Zaidi and PM Al-Zaidi’s team stressed diversifying exports and building links with Turkey, Jordan and Syria to reduce Strait of Hormuz bottlenecks and shipping risks. Iraq-Iran aviation squeeze: Iraq notified Iran of a flight ban on Iranian airlines and said it will discuss sanctions with the US to keep aviation services running; Iran warned air travel could be halted regionwide if access is denied. Oil market pressure from shipping costs: SOMO offered late September crude cargoes as extremely high shipping costs complicate loading from deep Gulf areas, raising the risk of tighter supply and upward price pressure. Regional security ripple effects: Analysts say Houthis’ pressure around Bab el-Mandeb is reshaping Red Sea security and global energy routes, adding uncertainty for Iraq’s export planning. Local industry and education in Kifri: The Rwanga Foundation, funded by KRI President Nechirvan Barzani, delivered a new Turkmen-language school and kindergarten building, supporting about 150 students and teachers.

Iraq Oil & Exports: SOMO launched a tender to sell 2 million barrels of Basrah Heavy crude for Oct. 1–7 loading, with bids due Sept. 28, as Baghdad keeps using ship-to-ship options to work around Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Energy & Shipping: Saudi crude rerouting is pushing Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers to capacity, tightening tanker availability and raising freight costs; VLCC rates for Middle East-to-China hit record levels amid longer queues. Aviation Sanctions Spillover: US sanctions are forcing Iranian airlines out of more Gulf airport access, with Iraq among affected destinations as carriers face route cuts and service restrictions. Regional Diplomacy: UNGA diplomacy continues with Iraq-linked talks in New York, including meetings involving Iraq’s deputy PM and foreign minister Fuad Hussein, while Turkey signals a new cooperation push with Baghdad. Industrial/Climate Tech: An Iranian CO2 recovery project tied to Tehran’s oil refinery was named a finalist in the 2026 WPC Energy Excellence Awards, highlighting emissions-reduction efforts in the energy sector.