AGP Executive Report

Iraq Economic Push: Iraq announced an IQD 3.5tn ($2.7bn) stimulus package covering housing finance, industrial lending, contractor payments, agricultural dues, and an expanded Generations Fund, with Prime Minister Al-Zaidi urging fast implementation through the Finance Ministry, the Central Bank, and banks. Petroleum Policy Q&A: A new Q&A lays out the Al-Zaidi government’s petroleum priorities, including higher production targets, how US firms are showing up in projects, export pricing and discounts, bureaucracy and transparency in contracting, gas monetisation, and plans to diversify export routes amid the war on Iran. Shipping & Tanker Strategy: Iraq’s state Oil Tanker Company moved 2 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz on a VLCC for the first time in decades, and Iraq is now seeking additional tankers to gain more control as attacks and insurance costs keep routes risky. Trade & Industry Links: Russia’s business mission signed its first commercial deals in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region across food, pharma, animal feed, and consumer goods, while Iraq and Germany moved to complete legal registration for a German trade office in Baghdad to speed up practical trade cooperation.

Energy Security & Oil Flows: Middle East crude exports (excluding Iran) bounced back to pre-war levels in September, with Kpler/Vortexa data showing 18.3m bpd on Sept. 30 and 14 days above pre-war averages, even as tanker attacks and route uncertainty persist. Shipping Risk: Analysts warn the Strait of Hormuz remains a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable” threat, pushing more cargoes to bypass the chokepoint via Red Sea routes and offshore tanker shifts. OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ kept November output targets unchanged, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman maintaining September levels amid infrastructure attack risks and maritime disruption. Saudi Infrastructure Hit: Reports say Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was attacked again near Khurais, halting flows after earlier damage, while Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser said global oil stockpiles are “scarily thin.” Iraq Logistics: Iraq’s state carrier “Iraqi Line” plans to resume regular Gulf maritime services after a 50-year gap, with a maiden voyage from Jebel Ali to Umm Qasr on Oct. 15. Regional Energy Corridor: Türkiye says its Development Road could become a $80B-a-year energy corridor linking Iraq and the Gulf to Europe via Basra and onward transport networks. State Control Push: Iraq’s PM set a deadline of June 30, 2027 to bring paramilitary weapons under state control, starting with a 90-day cessation of military activity beginning Sept. 30.

OPEC+ Holds Line on Output: Seven core producers, including Iraq, agreed to keep November oil output targets unchanged as Brent stays above $100 amid Iran-related export risks and Strait of Hormuz disruption. Energy Security & Shipping: Gulf flows are rebounding via pipelines, protected corridors, and tanker transfers, but the recovery remains fragile; OPEC+ also warned that attacks on energy infrastructure and maritime routes can take “time and money” to repair. Iraq Oil Route Shift: Iraq’s state oil company reportedly moved 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz on a very large carrier, signaling a push to adjust export logistics as war pressures the main Basra-linked model. Economic Support Package: PM Ali Al-Zaidi ordered at least 3.5 trillion dinars in measures, including central bank fund redirection for housing/real estate, liquidity for industrial projects, contractor dues, and payments to farmers. Agriculture Threat: The red palm weevil is spreading across Iraqi provinces, with Najaf launching surveys, pheromone traps, and treatments to protect date groves. Industry Leadership: Lafarge Iraq appointed a new CEO, Tarek Sharobime, replacing Medhat Ismail. Local Culture & Tourism: Khanaqin in Diyala is preparing its first Dates and Folk Arts Festival (Oct. 9–11), aiming to boost agriculture-linked trade and tourism.

OPEC+ Oil Policy: OPEC+ agreed to keep November oil output targets unchanged for a second straight month, maintaining September 2026 required production levels after a virtual meeting that included Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, with the next review set for Nov. 1. Iraq Hormuz Shift: Iraq’s state oil tanker company moved 2 million barrels of crude beyond the Strait of Hormuz on a VLCC for the first time in decades, aiming to improve pricing and reduce discounts as shipping remains disrupted by the US-Iran conflict; Iraq is also discussing purchases of specialized tankers to expand capacity. Iraq Export Pressure: US EIA data showed zero crude imports from Iraq last week, highlighting how volatile flows are amid Hormuz risks. Iraq-Turkiye Energy Deal: Iraq and Turkey advanced a draft deal to boost oil exports via the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, with Turkish firms expected to participate and technical committees formed. Najaf-Iran Air Links: Najaf International Airport is set to restart flights to Iran with an initial three evening services after a limited US sanctions waiver, with up to 40 daily flights planned (excluding Mahan Air). Real Estate Bank Dispute: Iraq’s Real Estate Bank challenged claims tied to the Zayouna Gate residential project in Baghdad, saying the land remains protected sovereign property and warning against unauthorized conversions.

Energy & Sovereignty: Iraq’s PM Ali Al-Zaidi says the country has restored full sovereignty after the Global Coalition’s Sept. 30 mission end, with Baghdad now controlling decisions, territory, airspace, and weapons under the commander-in-chief. Oil Exports & Infrastructure: Iraq and Türkiye advanced a draft deal to govern Iraqi crude exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan, including more capacity and Turkish company participation, plus joint technical committees for oilfield investment and infrastructure. Construction & Housing: CRC Dorra signed a contract with ORA Iraq for Phase One of Ali Al-Wardi Residential City (Madinat al-Ward), moving the project from site prep toward primary construction. Water & Agriculture Planning: Haditha Dam storage in Anbar has topped 6 billion cubic meters, with Euphrates levels “within safe limits” and releases raised to support irrigation and a larger winter crop plan. Regional Security Spillover: Houthis claim they targeted a Saudi Aramco oil facility near Riyadh with missiles and drones as strikes around Yemen intensify. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ monitoring bodies plan to review compliance and market conditions as output policy discussions continue. Logistics & Trade: Arab Bridge Maritime reported record profits above $40M through Sept. 30, citing growth in truck and passenger transport.

AI & Digital Health: Iraq’s tech push stayed in focus at ITEX 2026, where startups showcased AI for media verification and tamper-proofing, while the Future Health 2026 agenda highlighted AI moving from diagnosis to continuous risk prediction and personalized care. Telecom & Data Centers: Iraq’s Ministry of Communications signed an MoU with Huawei to build modern enterprise data centers nationwide, aiming to expand sovereign cloud hosting and partner with 240+ Iraqi enterprises. Energy & Trade Corridors: Iraq and Türkiye opened talks in Ankara on a wider energy framework covering oil, gas, petrochemicals and infrastructure, building on crude transport deals that help offset Hormuz disruptions. Oil Market Signals: India’s September crude imports hit a year high, with Iraq emerging as India’s second-largest supplier as Gulf flows rebound. Water Security: Haditha Dam storage in Anbar topped six billion cubic meters as Euphrates levels stayed within safe limits, with releases and diversions supporting drinking water and winter crop planning. Construction & Land Rights: In Nineveh, PMF blocked a protest over building restrictions in the Nineveh Plains after court-backed decisions lifted limits on registered private land. Transport & Logistics: Arab Bridge Maritime in the region reported record profits above $40M through September 30, supporting fleet upgrades and new routes.

Sovereignty Under Strain: Iraq’s foreign minister Fuad Hussein warned that the end of the US mission is opening a dangerous vacuum as Iran presses for influence over Baghdad’s security and decision-making. Aviation & Sanctions: Iran urged Iraq to restore flights after US sanctions hit Iranian airlines; Iraq had suspended Iran routes while seeking exemptions for pilgrims and medical travel. Energy Markets: OPEC+ is likely to keep November oil output steady, but delayed its 2027 capacity review after Iran-war disruptions muddied expansion plans. Oil & Shipping: Gulf crude exports are rebounding toward prewar levels as Saudi and UAE reroute supply around Hormuz, while Iranian exports remain constrained. Local Industry & Tech: Zain Iraq began authorized iPhone 18 Pro sales, signaling tighter regulated consumer tech distribution. Agri Innovation: Kurdistan’s first vermicompost plant is using earthworms to revive saline, degraded soil and support food security. Food & Costs: UN Women warned Middle East escalation could push millions more women and girls into food insecurity, with Iraq among countries facing high employment-related vulnerability.

Defense & Sovereignty: Kurdistan’s leaders say air-defense gaps are widening after the US-led coalition’s pullout, warning of renewed drone and missile threats as Iraq pushes weapons under state control. Turkey-Iraq Security: Türkiye says it will gradually hand over the Bashiqa-Zilkan base to Iraqi authorities, citing progress in Sinjar and promising continued defense cooperation. Oil & Shipping: Hormuz flows are rebounding toward pre-war levels, but refined fuel supply remains constrained; a tanker was also hit in the Strait, underscoring ongoing maritime risk. Aviation Sanctions Relief: The US issued a license allowing Iraqi Airways flights between Iran and Najaf until Oct. 28, easing pressure on Baghdad amid Iran-related restrictions. Construction Materials: Lafarge Iraq appointed Tarek Sharobime as new CEO as demand stays strong in cement, concrete and dry mortar. Industry & Trade: Iraq is in talks with Huawei on smart port technology, while reports also flag Iraq’s growing role as an oil supplier. Humanitarian Impact: UNHCR warns a funding crisis could cut education access for millions of refugee children.

US-Iraq Transition: The last US-led coalition forces have left Iraq, ending Operation Inherent Resolve and shifting security and influence dynamics toward Baghdad, with Washington still expected to keep training and intelligence ties. Regional Diplomacy: As US-Iran talks stall, Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran’s UN delegation to leave New York, while Iran says it received a US response on a seven-day Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal. Security & State Authority: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says Iraq will bring all weapons under state control by June 30, 2027, targeting non-state and non-Iraqi armed groups. Turkey-Iraq Military Handover: Türkiye will withdraw from the Bashiqa-Zilkan base near Mosul and hand it to Iraqi authorities in stages, while pledging continued defense-industry and counterterror cooperation. Energy & Power: Kurdistan electricity supply will drop for about a month due to maintenance at the Khor Mor gas field. Construction & Urban Development: ORA Iraq awarded CRC Dorra the Phase One construction contract for Madinat Al Ward. Aviation & Connectivity: Eurowings expands winter routes with new direct Baghdad service, signaling renewed regional travel demand.

US-Iraq Security Transition: The US completed its full withdrawal from Iraq, ending the anti-ISIS Operation Inherent Resolve and shifting security responsibility to Iraqi forces as coalition troops relocate to Jordan. Iraqi Sovereignty & Command: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said military decision-making is now “entirely national,” while the UK pledged continued security cooperation with Baghdad and Kurdistan, including defense industry and training support. Gulf Energy Pressure: Oil remains tight above $100 as US-Iran tensions and shipping risks keep markets on edge, with OPEC+ expected to hold output targets steady. Iraq Air Connectivity: Iraqi Airways is set to resume direct flights to Iran in October after securing a sanctions exemption, following months of disruption. Militia & Disarmament Risk: Analysts warn the federal government faces major hurdles verifying disarmament as Iranian-backed Iraqi militia defections and continued resistance complicate the post-withdrawal landscape.

Oil & Shipping: Iraq’s SOMO raised October discounts on Basrah crude to $34.50/bbl for Basrah Medium and $37/bbl for Basrah Heavy, aiming to pull buyers despite higher shipping costs and Strait of Hormuz risks. Security & Sovereignty: The U.S. completed its full troop withdrawal from Iraq, ending the 12-year mission against ISIS and shifting security responsibility to Iraqi forces, while Iran framed the pullout as a regional victory. Kurdistan Air Defense: Drones struck Azadi Camp near Koya, renewing pressure on the Kurdistan Region’s air-defense plans as coalition forces depart. Energy Policy Ripple: Iraq’s oil export outlook remains tied to regional transit disruptions, with markets watching OPEC+ output decisions as Iraq is among core members. Industry & Logistics: EGA signed with Gulftainer to boost aluminium exports from the UAE’s east coast, with port capacity expansion that also supports regional shipping links. Tech & AI (Global, Indirect): CoreWeave launched CoreWeave Forge to unify the AI development loop—an example of how production-grade AI workflows are evolving worldwide.

US-Iraq Withdrawal & Sovereignty: The last US-led coalition troops are set to leave Iraq on Sept. 30, a move Baghdad frames as “sovereignty,” but analysts warn it could weaken the state’s leverage over Iran-backed militias as the disarmament deadline looks likely to slip. Housing & Land Administration: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered the Justice Ministry to speed up a database for state and other real estate under the Watan Initiative, with an online registration link planned for next month and infrastructure contracting starting for prepared plot sites. Energy Logistics Under Pressure: Iraq has begun importing gasoline via Syria’s Baniyas port to bypass Hormuz disruption, using land transport onward; separately, Syria reports sabotage hitting gas pipelines, raising uncertainty for regional energy transit. Oil Refining Push: Nineveh’s council backed a 70,000-bpd refinery in Qayyarah for Council of Ministers approval, alongside calls for local industrial participation. Gas Processing Progress: Dhi Qar’s Al-Nasiriyah/Al-Gharraf gas project reached 78% completion, targeting dry gas for power plants and industrial use while cutting flaring. Fuel Prices Watch: Singapore’s Caltex raised petrol prices, mirroring Shell, as Middle East supply worries keep energy costs volatile. Construction Contract: ORA Iraq awarded CRC Dorra the Phase One construction contract for Madinat Al Ward after POWERCHINA completed earthworks and ground preparation.

Iraq–Finance Integration: The Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) has started trading on Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange’s Tabadul platform, letting investors in both markets access listed securities directly and trade/settle in local currencies—an expansion that links regional capital markets and boosts cross-border investment channels. Energy & Infrastructure: Iraq’s oil export picture is improving as Middle East crude flows recover toward about 80% of pre-conflict levels, with analysts pointing to rerouting and bypass routes as Hormuz pressure eases. Aviation & Sanctions Pressure: Iraq is dealing with the fallout of US sanctions on Iran-linked aviation, including talks around resuming flights (such as Tehran–Najaf) and broader disruptions that are reshaping regional travel routes. Security & Regional Spillover: A pro-Iran militia warned it will monitor Iraqi airspace and shoot down “hostile” aircraft after the US-led coalition withdrawal ends Sept. 30, raising new uncertainty for air operations and stability. Industry Watch: Consumer manufacturing continues to expand in the region, with Unilever Egypt adding export-focused capacity—an indirect signal for Iraq’s wider consumer-goods supply chain opportunities.

Iraq–Smart Ports: Iraq’s Ministry of Transport met Huawei and Uruk Engineering Services in China to explore smart port tech and digital logistics, with a planned Huawei assessment visit to Iraq’s maritime transport and ports directorate after a field trip to Tianjin Port. Electrical Manufacturing Push: Iraq’s National Investment Commission discussed with Swiss firm Main Power Engineering a full-cycle electrical equipment complex, including oil-immersed high-voltage transformers, dry-type industrial transformers, semiconductor devices, switching systems, and a high-voltage testing facility. Oil Export Update (Kirkuk): Iraq increased crude volumes for export via the Kirkuk system to about 250,000 bpd (from ~225,000), supported by higher Basra-linked flows and Kurdistan Region supply, with storage at Ceyhan port reported at capacity. Sanctions & Air Links: Iraq said flights from Iran to Najaf could resume within 24 hours after US sanctions disrupted services, while foreign ground-handling firms reportedly paused work over dollar-system risks. Regional Energy Pressure: Middle East crude exports rebounded in September as Saudi shipments rose, but Strait of Hormuz reopening remains uncertain after US rejection of Iran’s proposal—keeping logistics and costs tight for the region.

Energy Security: The IEA says Saudi crude supply fell to a more than three-decade low in August, after attacks tied to Yemen’s Houthis and Iran-backed strikes hit key facilities and shipping near Bab el-Mandeb, Jazan and Yanbu. Oil Trade: Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded in September to about 12.8m bpd as Hormuz flows gradually recovered, though still far below February levels. Iraq Exports & Imports: India’s state refiner bought 2m barrels of Iraqi Basrah Medium and Heavy for October delivery at roughly a $28/bbl discount to Dubai, while Iraq continues rerouting energy via Syria as Hormuz risk persists. Cross-Border Fuel Corridor: Syria has started shipping imported petrol to Iraq through the Banias port under a renewable three-month deal, with initial batches of tanker trucks and plans to scale up. Iraq Market Watch: The ISX traded over $4.58m last week (about 6.6bn dinars), with the ISX60 index edging up. Digital Infrastructure: Iraq officially licensed Starlink satellite internet, with regulators saying network oversight remains sovereign. Industry & Investment: Basra’s oil, gas, energy and petrochemicals expo wrapped up with about 300 companies from 18 countries.

Iraq–Syria Trade Boost: Iraq has started importing petrol through Syria via the Banias oil terminal, using an overland corridor to ease fuel shortages amid Strait of Hormuz disruption; the first batch of about 32,000 tonnes is moving by tanker and truck toward Iraq’s Baiji refinery under a transit deal involving SOMO and Qatar’s UCC. Customs Modernization: Baghdad and Damascus also agreed eight measures to streamline cross-border trade and passenger traffic, including electronic customs-data exchange and dedicated lanes, with a Damascus Chamber estimate of 30–50% trade growth in the first year. Basra Refining Tensions: Workers at the South Refineries Company’s FCC project in Basra escalated protests, demanding Oil Ministry jobs and reinstatement after the project ended, as entrances and roads were blocked and some protesters were injured or arrested. Oil Market Pressure: Vitol bought at least 25 million barrels of discounted Iraqi crude in September, underscoring how shipping and logistics risks are reshaping Iraq’s export flows. Water Security: Iraq’s environment ministry warned it will pursue legal action over pollution threatening the Tigris and Euphrates, calling them “not dumping grounds.” Regional Shipping Politics: A Houthi official said coordination with Iraqi factions continues through “private channels,” while Red Sea tensions keep pressure on regional energy routes.