AGP Executive Report

Oil Exports & Infrastructure: Iraq’s cabinet approved a three-month mechanism to export crude starting Sept. 1, using local and foreign firms and multiple outlets as Hormuz disruption bites, with new transport routes and pipeline capacity plans via Turkey and Syria. Energy Markets: Oil prices climbed for a fourth straight day as conflicting US-Iran claims kept the Strait of Hormuz uncertain, while shipping traffic slowed and investors priced in supply risk. Southern Oil Investment: Chevron is pushing ahead on major southern Iraq projects and is moving its footprint from the Kurdistan Region toward federal Iraq, including work tied to a proposed Syria-to-Mediterranean pipeline. Security & State Control: Iraq’s weapons-control deadline toward Sept. 30 is raising tensions among factions, with Kataib Hezbollah rhetoric against PM Ali al-Zaidi and disputes over whether arms talks must be linked to foreign troop withdrawals. Industrial Incident: A major fuel-facility fire in Sulaymaniyah injured at least 30 people after explosions in flammable tanks, with provincial fuel supplies reported unaffected. Regional Diplomacy: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf arrived in Baghdad for talks on bilateral ties, border security, counterterrorism, and economic cooperation.

Oil Exports: Iraq’s cabinet approved a three-month temporary mechanism for crude oil exports starting Sept. 1, using contracts with specialized international and local companies to add redundancy to routes after regional disruptions. Trade Finance: The EBRD extended a $75mn trade finance line to Iraq’s Al Mansour Bank for Investment to expand cross-border financing for agriculture, construction, manufacturing and consumer goods. Energy Infrastructure: Iraq’s push to revive a Syria-linked pipeline to bypass Hormuz is still years away, with Reuters citing a four-year, $15bn rebuild timeline. Shipping & Prices: With Hormuz disruption continuing, gas prices rose again in the U.S., driven by elevated crude above $80 and ongoing route uncertainty. Agriculture & Markets: Erbil’s fourth “Grape Basket” Festival opened in Ankawa to support local farmers, boost market access and promote locally grown produce. Food Industry: An Iraqi shawarma and grill restaurant is set for a soft opening in Vienna, reflecting continued interest in Iraqi cuisine abroad. Industrial Safety: A major fire at a fuel depot in Sulaymaniyah’s Tangro industrial zone injured about 30 people and destroyed dozens of tanker trucks and millions of liters of gasoline. Regional Talks: Iran’s chief negotiator said Hormuz won’t reopen until U.S. commitments are met; a senior delegation is expected to visit Iraq to discuss cooperation.

Oil & Gas Infrastructure: Iraq is pushing to cut gas flaring and boost power supply after inaugurating a new central gas processing plant at the Faihaa oil field in Basra, with 130 million standard cubic feet per day of processing capacity and output aimed at adding 92 million scf/d of gas plus LPG production. Export Routes & Shipping: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions still reshaping flows, Iraq is in talks to secure crude transit options and reduce reliance on the chokepoint, while regional moves to reroute trade keep the pressure on Iraq’s export logistics. Ports & Regional Trade: DP World says it has delivered three Mobile Harbour Cranes for the Port of Tartous, targeting a major jump in cargo handling capacity—an effort that could matter for Iraq-linked Mediterranean re-export planning. Security & State Control: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is set to visit Baghdad, with reports pointing to Hormuz shipping and Iraq’s weapons-to-the-state push as key agenda items. Industrial Safety: A major fuel facility blaze in Sulaimaniyah injured at least 20 people, highlighting ongoing safety risks in Iraq’s fuel storage and handling sites. Militias & Governance: Pro-Iran Harakat al-Nujaba-linked reporting says PMF released an intelligence director after counterterrorism detention, as Baghdad presses disarmament timelines.

Iraq–Iran Banking Reset: Iraq and Iran’s central banks met in Baghdad to ease banking restrictions, speed access to funds held in Iraqi banks, and simplify transfers for Iranian traders and exporters—aiming to unlock more engineering, finance, and development contracting cooperation. Kirkuk–Tripoli Pipeline Talks: Lebanese officials in Beirut met an Iraqi delegation to revive the historic Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, with Lebanon preparing to act as a storage and re-export hub; the plan includes border upgrades, road works for tanker traffic, and safety standards to diversify Iraq’s export routes away from Hormuz. Electricity Workforce Literacy Drive: Iraq’s Education Ministry and Electricity Ministry launched a “When Energy Meets Knowledge” push for about 20,000 employees lacking formal qualifications, using placement tests and literacy levels toward primary certificates. Halfaya Gas Processing Boost: Iraq’s Halfaya oilfield is processing around 190 million standard cubic feet of associated gas per day to feed Maysan power plants and support the national grid, with a stated goal to end flaring nationwide by 2029. Kurdistan Security Shock: Iraq requested clarification from Tehran after Iranian drones hit the residence and office of KRG PM Masrour Barzani, raising fears of further escalation in the region.

Kurdistan Security: Iranian drones hit the office of KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and the residence of a senior security intelligence official in Erbil, with no casualties reported, renewing fears of cross-border attacks tied to the Iran war. Hormuz Deadline: A 60-day US-Iran MoU expires without a final deal as both sides blame each other over the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockade terms, and reopening commercial shipping. Oil Infrastructure for Iraq: Lebanon and an Iraqi delegation met in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline as a potential Mediterranean storage and re-export route, while Reuters says an Iraq–Syria pipeline would take about four years and cost at least $15bn. Energy Pressure on Iraq: An AUIS Iraq Energy Outlook warns the country is overly dependent on oil and the Strait of Hormuz, urging faster pipeline work, better Baghdad–Erbil coordination, and more export corridors. Regional War Prep: Reports say Iran used the MoU period to prepare for wider confrontation, including expanded missile/drone output and IRGC coordination with partners in Iraq and beyond. Electricity Crisis: Commentary highlights Iraq’s stalled power promises, as the grid still fails to meet basic needs despite plans for major 2027 capacity gains.

Electricity & Social Stability: In Maysan, a protest over poor power supply turned into clashes with police, leaving three security personnel injured, as Iraq’s power gap stays wide amid summer demand and gas disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Power Sector Incentives: In Iraqi Kurdistan, the Runaki legacy-debt discount has helped 170,000+ beneficiaries clear old electricity bills, with 50% off for residential/agriculture and 25% for commercial/industrial/government users until Sept. 10. Oil Export Logistics: Iraq’s Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline transit tariff is set at $1.62 per barrel under a one-year extension, keeping crude flowing via Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal while Baghdad seeks more export corridors. Alternative Route Push: Lebanese officials met an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline as Lebanon prepares to act as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products. Industry Investment Outreach: Iraq’s National Security Advisor met Japan’s ambassador to boost security for foreign commercial operations and accelerate Japanese direct investment in energy and industrial projects; PM Al-Zaidi also urged Italian firms to expand in Iraq’s energy, industrial, and agricultural sectors. Consumer Tech Demand: Smartphone shipments in Iraq fell 36% year-on-year, reflecting higher prices, supply constraints, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Iraq Oil Exports Surge: Iraq’s daily oil exports in August have rebounded to about two million barrels per day, the highest since the Iran war began, as Baghdad leans on alternative routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz and boosts storage and terminal readiness. Energy Imports Plan: Iraq is set to raise electricity imports from neighboring countries, while aiming to double power production, transmission, and distribution capacity by 2027 to close the summer supply gap. Safety Crackdown: Kurdistan civil defense says it has closed 900 non-compliant commercial buildings this year for failing fire and safety standards, targeting highly flammable materials and electrical risks. Export Route Push: Lebanon and Iraq discussed reviving the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline to use Lebanon as a storage and re-export hub, with border and safety upgrades planned to attract investment. Turkey Hub for Crude: With Hormuz risks rising, Türkiye’s Ceyhan is being positioned as a storage and trading hub, including renewed use of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan route. Regional Shipping Tensions: Iran and the US remain locked in a Hormuz standoff, with Iran insisting the strait will remain under its control as attacks and insurance worries keep trade under pressure.

Oil Infrastructure & Exports: Lebanon and Iraq are moving to revive the historic Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline, with Beirut preparing to act as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products—an effort aimed at diversifying export routes away from the Strait of Hormuz. Downstream Refining: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has agreed with Japan’s JGC to resume work on the FCC complex at Basra’s South Refineries Company, targeting added gasoline, diesel and LPG output to cut fuel import costs. Power Sector: In Erbil, PM Ali al-Zaidi said electricity production and distribution capacity should “double” in 2027, directing the ministry to sustain 30,000MW domestically and add major imports and renewables. Security & Industry Risk: A UN report warns of a growing cross-border terrorist threat linked to Afghanistan-backed TTP, raising regional instability concerns that can spill into logistics and industrial operations. Maritime Chokepoint Pressure: UAE blamed Iran for an ADNOC-linked tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran rejects US claims of control—keeping shipping risk and energy uncertainty high for the region. Counterterror Ops in Iraq: Iraqi forces in Diyala and Anbar arrested three terrorists and seized an ISIS weapons cache, supporting continued pressure on remnants.

Oil Exports & Routes: Iraq says August oil exports hit 2 million barrels per day in the first 10 days, the highest since the crisis began, with crude moving via Basra terminals, Hormuz-linked routes and the pipeline to Ceyhan as Baghdad seeks more export options. Downstream Refining Push: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil signed with Japan’s JGC to resume work on the South Refineries Company FCC project in Basra, targeting added gasoline, diesel and LPG output to cut fuel import costs. Security Operations: Iraqi forces in Diyala and Anbar arrested three terrorists and seized an ammunition cache as part of ongoing ISIS-remnant sweeps. Judicial Cooperation: Iraq and Syria agreed to form joint committees to review ISIS detainee cases transferred to Iraq, aiming to process trial files through regular meetings. Investment & Industry Potential: Al-Anbar’s western desert (Al-Rutba) was pitched for investment in agriculture, livestock, minerals and energy, including dam projects and mining inputs like silica and phosphate. Regional Energy Shock: The Strait of Hormuz dispute remains a live threat to shipping and oil flows, with Iran rejecting US claims and insisting any opening/closing is under its control. Infrastructure for Exports: Lebanon and an Iraqi delegation discussed reviving the Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline as a storage and re-export hub to diversify Iraq’s Mediterranean access.

Oil Export Routes: Lebanon and Iraq are moving to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline, with Beirut preparing to act as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products, including upgrades to borders, roads for tanker traffic, and storage safety standards. Iraq–UAE Oil Lifeline: With Hormuz traffic squeezed, Iraq is selling more crude via UAE-linked shuttling by ADNOC, using “dark” transits and transfers outside the strait—though recent drone attacks keep the risk high for Baghdad’s export revenue. Shipping Shock at Hormuz: Two ADNOC-affiliated tankers were hit by drones in the Strait of Hormuz; the UAE blamed Iran and urged “complete and unconditional reopening,” while regional statements echoed concerns over freedom of navigation and escalation. Security Pressure on Industry: Iraqi sources say Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has ordered studies for a possible operation against Kataib Hezbollah’s Jurf al Sakhr stronghold, tied to a broader crackdown on Iranian-backed militias by September 30—raising uncertainty for logistics and energy operations. Defense Supply Chain Stress: Reports say the US lost about 25% of its MQ-9 Reaper drone fleet in the Iran war, underscoring how quickly high-value military assets and related procurement can strain industrial capacity. Regional Water Stress: Drought and hydrological collapse are worsening in Kurdistan, with farmland abandonment and village displacement linked to water depletion—an indirect hit to agriculture and rural industry. Energy Infrastructure Demand: MAN Industries says it will expand overseas aggressively, betting on oil-and-gas pipeline demand as Gulf states diversify routes away from Hormuz and plan for future reconstruction.

Energy Exports & Infrastructure: Lebanese officials in Beirut met an Iraqi delegation to revive the historic Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, with Lebanon preparing to act as an initial storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products—expanding border crossings, tanker-capable roads, and storage safety standards as Baghdad seeks export routes beyond Strait of Hormuz pressure. Maritime Security & Oil Risks: The UAE condemned what it called a hostile Iranian attack on two ADNOC-linked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it piracy and warning it threatens regional stability and global energy security as shipping remains heavily disrupted. Iraq Industry & Gas Value-Add: Maysan Oil Company marketed a 440-ton sulphur shipment produced at the Halfaya gas processing plant, with SOMO set to handle export—highlighting how associated gas processing is feeding fertilizer and industrial supply chains. Power & Grid Buildout: Kurdistan Region’s Electricity Ministry is overseeing three new substations in northern Iraq, supporting ongoing grid expansion. Consumer & Retail: Al Beiruti, a popular Lebanese restaurant, announced its first Iraqi branch opening at Iraq Mall in Baghdad, reflecting continued growth in the capital’s retail and food services.

Oil Transit & Infrastructure: Lebanese officials met an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the historic Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline, positioning Lebanon as a storage and re-export hub to diversify Iraq’s export routes away from the Strait of Hormuz. Security & Diplomacy: Iraq’s Chief Justice Faiq Zidan met Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus to expand judicial cooperation, including joint committees on cross-border legal cases and Syrian prisoners. Kurdistan Fuel Crunch: Iraq’s Kurdistan Region (KRG) moved to ease the petrol and gas crisis by increasing fuel supplies to gas stations and ordering more natural gas to power plants, with new delivery phases starting in Erbil and Duhok. Regional Pressure on Militias: New reporting says Iraq’s federal government is considering using force against Iranian-backed militias if they don’t disarm by Sept. 30, with intensive talks involving Baghdad and the IRGC. Energy Market Shock: A report says the US lost about a quarter of its MQ-9 Reaper drone fleet during the Iran war, underscoring how the Hormuz flashpoint is disrupting military operations and raising costs. Culture & Recovery: A Baghdad forum discussed Yazidi heritage and rebuilding challenges more than a decade after ISIS attacks, focusing on policies to support return and protect cultural identity.

Oil & Exports Diversification: Lebanon hosted talks with an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline, aiming to turn Lebanon into a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products as Baghdad looks for routes beyond Hormuz. Kurdistan Output Watch: DNO reported $761m Q2 revenue, but said Kurdistan Region output stayed near 300 boepd after suspensions at Tawke; the firm is working to restore KRI volumes and noted export routes remain unavailable. OPEC Signals: OPEC said July crude output rose about 1.7m bpd, with Iraq posting the biggest monthly gain to around 2.62m bpd, reflecting broader Gulf recovery amid ongoing disruptions. Basra Power & Water Strain: Southern Iraq’s electricity shortages are sparking fears of local clashes, with Dhi Qar residents threatening to cut water to Basra via the Al-Bidaa canal unless power hours improve. Housing Finance: Iraq’s Housing Fund will open electronic loan applications on 23 August for four days, starting with Baghdad and other governorates, with two loan types at IQD 60m. Industry & Trade Links: Syria is pushing higher-value exports—food and medicinal plants among them—targeting Iraq and Jordan through easier land crossings. Security & Logistics Risk: The UNSC said the November 2025 Red Fort attack was officially attributed to AQIS, underscoring ongoing regional threat concerns that can spill into trade and logistics.

Oil Export Routes: Lebanese officials met an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline, positioning Lebanon as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products while Baghdad seeks alternatives to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Energy Logistics: The talks covered operational readiness, border and road upgrades for heavy tanker traffic, and safety standards for storage facilities. Economic Strain in Iraq: With Hormuz-linked export limits squeezing state cash flow, reports say Iraqi public-sector salaries are arriving later, adding pressure to households and sparking small protests. Regional Fallout in Kurdistan: Four drones crashed in Erbil province, with no confirmed casualties; authorities suspect Iran or Iran-aligned militias amid repeated strikes on KRI infrastructure. Corporate Finance (Iraq-linked): Estithmar Holding reported solid H1 2026 results, with operations spanning Iraq and other regional markets, and market capitalization around QAR 20bn. Security & Sovereignty: Iraq’s PM al-Zaidi reiterated the timetable to end the international coalition’s military mission by Sept. 30, framing it as a step toward full sovereignty and development.

Iraqi Oil Route Diversification: Lebanon is preparing to act as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products, with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam chairing talks in Beirut on reviving the historic Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline and upgrading borders, roads, and storage safety to handle tanker traffic. Shipping & Trade Pressure: With the Strait of Hormuz still unstable, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC is reportedly offering to shuttle Iraqi oil exports using short-trip “dark transit” tactics to reach Asian refiners, aiming to keep barrels moving even as risks drive up costs. Local Logistics Costs: In Baghdad, delivery firms warn that rising licensing fees and overlapping regulation are pushing the sector toward collapse, with more than 25 companies closing daily as license renewals and charges eat into thin margins. Industrial Restart in Mosul: A German-funded clothing factory in Mosul has reopened after rehabilitation, bringing back full production at the Waladi workshop with new equipment and fire-safety systems. Regional Security Spillover: Iran–US tensions continue to shape Gulf shipping, with attacks reported around key waterways and negotiations over Hormuz reopening still described as elusive.

Energy Corridor Talks: Lebanese officials met an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the historic Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, with Lebanon preparing to act as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products; the plan includes rehabilitation work, border and road upgrades for tanker traffic, and new safety standards to attract investment. Oil Export Pressure: US EIA data shows Iraqi crude imports to the US dropped to zero in the latest four-week average, extending a sharp fall in shipments amid Strait of Hormuz disruption risk. Gas Development: Iraq’s Oil Ministry says it plans to raise Ajeel field gas output in Saladin province to about 300 million standard cubic feet per day, boosting LPG/condensates and reducing flaring through BP-linked development. Anti-Corruption Drive: Iraq’s Dawn Crackdown has detained at least 210 officials and business figures across multiple provinces, with the Federal Commission of Integrity leading raids tied to the Central Anti-Corruption Criminal Court. Trade & Logistics: Jordan’s Aqaba Port saw a surge in transit traffic for Iraqi-bound goods, with container and commodity volumes rising sharply over seven months, reinforcing Aqaba’s role as a regional logistics hub. Security & Economy Link: A lawmaker alleged Iraq’s tanker exports are being blocked despite clearances, pointing to possible corruption behind Hormuz-related shipping decisions. Kurdistan Transition: US-led coalition forces are preparing to withdraw from Iraq’s Kurdistan region and hand over sites to Iraqi agencies by September 30.